White Paper
PCI’s White Paper, The Impact of Population Growth,
illustrates the social and environmental problems so often
complicated by increased population density.
The Impact of Population Growth
A White Paper from Population Communications International
Introduction
In the 20th century, world population nearly quadrupled,
and population numbers in many cities and countries multiplied
at an even faster pace. Even today, with birth rates coming
down around the world, the populations of many developing
countries are expected to double or even triple again by 2050.
By then, global population will most likely reach 9.3 billion,
adding more than 50 percent of the current total of 6.1 billion.
On the one hand, these trends are a cause for celebration
because they demonstrate the remarkable public health advances
since 1950 that have dramatically improved health and increased
life expectancy around the world. On the other hand, large
and growing populations present societies with social and
environmental challenges that are not only new, but have gained
momentum on a scale previously unknown in human history. These
challenges warrant unprecedented international cooperation.
As the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) points out,
"It took all of time for world population to reach 2
billion in 1927 — then less than a lifetime to arrive
at 6 billion." World population is now growing more slowly
than at its peak of about 86 million per year between 1985
and 1990. But we are still adding around 80 million people
every year, with almost all of that growth occurring in developing
countries already struggling to meet the needs of their citizens.
In another 20th century phenomenon, consumption rates have
skyrocketed in the world’s wealthy nations. For example,
while U.S. population numbers tripled, its consumption rates
multiplied 17 times. Between 1980 and 1997 alone, world population
increased by about a third, but the global economy nearly
tripled to US$29 trillion.
These dramatic increases in consumption are taking their
toll on stressed ecosystems all over the world. To support
the annual consumption of goods and services of an American
takes roughly ten times the ecosystem productivity as that
needed to support the consumption of a citizen in the developing
world.
Environmental reporter Don Hinrichsen writes that “the
world’s one billion richest people — which include
Europeans and Japanese, among others — consume 80 percent
of the Earth’s resources.” In fact, while Americans
account for only five percent of the world’s population,
they consume nearly one-third of all resources used every
year and produce 25 percent of the annual volume of waste.
Hinrichsen concludes that "the other five billion people
on Earth make do with just 20 percent of the planet’s
resources.”
U.N. Population Division director Joseph Chamie notes, “As
we move into the 21st century, world population remains an
issue of critical concern and at the forefront of the international
agenda. The consequent challenges will indeed benefit from
continued international cooperation.”
PCI’s Survey Results
Population Communications International recently surveyed
over 9,000 Americans concerned about social issues to assess
their views on population and environmental change. The results
indicate that many Americans are both concerned and knowledgeable
about these interconnections:
• Almost two-thirds of those surveyed say that population
is a serious problem.
• Almost 85 percent connect overpopulation with human
suffering.
• More than four-fifths believe that environmental
victories are threatened by excessive demand and use of Earth’s
resources.
• 83 percent feel that world leaders should acknowledge
that population growth is the driving force in global warming
and a central issue in environmental problems.
• Almost 90 percent of those surveyed believe that
all men and women who want family planning services should
have access to them.
• Almost three-quarters believe that economic and social
justice, gender equality, and environmental protection are
linked and should all be considered in working toward a better
world.
• 80 percent believe that the scale of human demand
and activities over the next fifty years will determine the
health of the Earth for centuries to come.
Population and the Environment
Evidence of an accelerating global environmental crisis is
mounting, and the connections between population growth and
environmental change are well documented by scientists and
researchers in many different disciplines. In the 1990s, scientists
from around the world issued several joint statements citing
the impact of population, consumption, and human activities
as key factors in declining environmental conditions. World
Resources 2000-2001, issued jointly by the World Resources
Institute, the U.N. Development Programme, the U.N. Environment
Programme, and the World Bank, notes that “human use
is the primary source of pressure on ecosystems today, far
outstripping the natural processes of ecosystem change.”
Recent trends in climate change, the depletion of Earth’s
protective ozone shield, water supply and pollution, air quality,
deforestation, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, and other
environmental indicators all point to dramatically heightened
levels of stress and demand on Earth’s resources in
our modern world. According to the Worldwatch Institute, “The
last half century has been a period of sweeping, unprecedented
change: change in the economy, change in society, and change
in the very biosphere of the planet.”
Virtually every human activity has some environmental impact.
Our daily consumption habits, our industrial and commercial
processes, and the near tripling of human numbers over the
last 50 years all produce dramatic environmental consequences.
As we take stock of critical environmental issues at the
start of the new millennium, it is clear that the balances
of global ecosystems are shifting. Efforts continue to try
to slow the rate of damage, but the scale and complexities
of intersecting needs and interests defy simple solutions.
In the Atlas of Population
and Environment, issued by the American Association for the
Advancement of Science (AAAS), biologist Peter H. Raven
says that the last half-century has been traumatic. “The
collective impact of human numbers, affluence (consumption
per individual), and our choices of technology continue to
exploit rapidly an increasing proportion of the world’s
resources at an unsustainable rate.”
World Resources 2000-2001
notes that human activities have put global ecosystems under
siege. Some 75 percent of major marine fish stocks are either
depleted from overfishing or threatened with depletion. Logging
and agricultural conversion have shrunk the world’s
forest cover by as much as half; and roads, farms, and residences
are rapidly fragmenting what remains. Destructive fishing
practices, tourist pressures, and pollution threaten more
than half of the world’s coral reefs. Fully 65 percent
of the roughly 1.5 billion hectares of cropland worldwide
have experienced some degree of soil degradation. And over-pumping
of groundwater by the world’s farmers exceeds natural
recharge rates by at least 160 billion square meters per year.
Population and Consumption
By the late 1990s, consumers in wealthy countries —
about 16 percent of the world’s population — accounted
for 80 percent of total individual consumption around the
world. According to the United Nations Development Programme,
citizens of the developed world spend about 45 times as much
each year on private consumption as their counterparts in
South Asia or sub-Saharan Africa. As World
Resources 2000-2001 notes, “even considering
that almost four times as many people live in developing countries
as in developed ones, the greatest burden on ecosystems currently
originates with affluent consumers in developed countries,
as well as wealthy elites in developing countries.”
As population growth, personal income, and industrialization
in both the developed and developing world continues to expand,
the question arises of how far into the future the world can
sustain such high levels of consumption. Waste disposal, the
demand for fossil fuels, and pollution problems are increasingly
critical issues.
The use of paper offers a valuable illustration of the problems
of consumption. In the past 50 years, world paper use has
increased sixfold. The differences in paper use in the developed
and developing countries demonstrate the disparities of consumption
created by industrialization. The average per capita paper
use in developing countries is about 17 kilograms per year,
while in industrialized countries that figure ranges from
111 kilograms per year in Western Europe to 238 in Japan to
292 kilograms per year in the United States.
Recycling efforts in industry and among the general population
have proved helpful in reducing the environmental impacts
of material resource use. Between 1970 and 1994, paper recovery
through recycling throughout the world increased from 23 percent
to 37 percent.
Not everything, however, can be recycled. Some materials,
such as fossil fuels, can be used only once. Carbon emissions
from automobiles and industry are disrupting the stability
of the Earth’s climate. Per capita amounts of carbon
dioxide emissions around the world range from 3.7 metric tons
in Mexico, to 8.4 tons in Europe, and 19.6 tons in the United
States.
Technological advances are improving resource efficiency,
while new government policies and consumer awareness programs
have forced businesses to take more responsibility for their
contributions to resource use, waste, and pollution. In industrialized
countries, resource efficiency has improved by 2 percent per
year since 1970, though energy efficiency has barely changed
since 1990. Many industries have been developing new technologies
and incentive programs for recycling, but the challenges remain
daunting.
Population and Water
World Resources estimates that almost 40 percent of the world’s
population currently experiences moderate to high water shortages
that threaten agriculture, industry, and health. With population
growth, water shortages are expected to increase dramatically
over the next several decades. In addition, intensive agriculture
and urbanization have degraded surface water quality in almost
all regions.
Without serious water conservation measures, water stress
could affect two-thirds of the world’s population in
just 30 years. According to Tapped Out, a book by former U.S.
Senator Paul Simon, per capita world water consumption is
increasing twice as fast as the world’s population.
Between 1900 and 1995, water withdrawals for domestic use,
agriculture, and industry multiplied more than six times.
Between 1950 and 2050, the amount of fresh water available
per person is expected to decrease by 73 percent as a result
of population growth.
In many areas of the world, surface and groundwater supplies
are being used up more quickly than precipitation is able
to replenish them. This shrinking of water supplies not only
affects humans through water shortages, but also damages ecosystems
that rely on those water reserves.
According to the World Health Organization, 1 billion people
still lack access to safe drinking water. Water pollution
is tantamount to water use, since polluted water is not usable.
Contamination of water supplies is a particular problem in
the urban areas of developing countries, where sanitation
infrastructure is often unable to accommodate growing populations.
In addition, the uneven distribution of global water supplies
and the scarcity of water in certain regions often create
tension among those who desire access to limited water resources.
Political tensions over water availability are likely to become
one of the most pressing resource issues of the 21st century.
Because water is a limited resource with a finite supply,
better management of water supplies is essential, including
improvements in managing irrigation systems. In developing
countries, an average of 60 to 75 percent of irrigation water
is lost in transport, never reaching the crops. Similar problems
prevail in agriculture in industrialized countries, though
to a lesser extent.
Recommendations for addressing the problem of wasteful water
use include focusing on more accurate pricing systems. In
Tapped Out, Simon notes that many nations do not charge consumers
the true price of water. Water prices are often much lower
than they would be without government subsidies, thus encouraging
wasteful consumption. Simon cites the former East Germany
as an example. After German unification, East German water
consumption dropped significantly as a result of higher water
prices than those that existed in the communist system.
Population and Food Production
In recent decades, improvements in agricultural productivity
associated with the Green Revolution have meant that food
production has kept up with population growth. Most experts
expect that production will continue to provide adequate food
supplies over the coming decades, though distribution problems
and agricultural disruptions will continue to leave a significant
percentage of people malnourished.
In the long term, however, whether agricultural production
can continue to keep pace with population growth and changing
ecosystem capacities is uncertain. World Resources projects
potential increases in demand for water of up to 50 percent
for irrigation and up to 100 percent for industrial use in
just 25 years. Even if irrigation water can be found, intensifying
agricultural production with current technologies will increase
damage from nutrient and pesticide runoff and entail massive
conversion of forests and other ecosystems to croplands.
World Resources notes that the condition of agricultural
lands, essential for mass food production, is declining in
much of the world. Soil degradation resulting from intensive
agricultural use threatens to make currently productive agricultural
land unusable. Soil degradation is a concern in as much as
65 percent of the production area.
Clearing additional land for agriculture is unlikely to be
an option for increasing food production since most of the
Earth’s productive agricultural land is already in use.
Much of the remaining land has relatively unproductive soil.
Instead, farmers will have to look to biotechnology and traditional
plant breeding techniques to improve crop yield in order to
continue to provide the food supplies necessary to feed the
world’s growing population.
Production is not the only problem in providing food for
the world’s growing population. One estimate of current
global food production claims that if the total amount of
food produced throughout the world were added up and divided
by the world population, there would be food enough to feed
12 percent more than the existing world population. Yet more
than 800 million people throughout the world are considered
malnourished, 200 million of them children. According to the
World Health Organization, about one third of all children
living in developing countries are malnourished.
The primary cause of malnutrition is poverty. Poor people
lack the resources to purchase or grow enough food to feed
their families. They may not own their own land to use for
subsistence farming or they may not have access to the knowledge
needed to produce their own crops. Population growth can contribute
to loss of access to land, as increasing numbers of people
vie for a limited amount of land. In Bangladesh, the percentage
of landless people increased from 35 percent in 1960 to 53
percent by the early 1990s. Other problems, such as drought
or war, compound the difficulties of ensuring access to food
resources.
Population and Climate Change
Global warming of the earth’s atmosphere is caused by
rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases that trap
heat. Carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere by the
burning of fossil fuels, such as the gasoline burned by automobiles
or the coal that generates much of the world’s electric
power. Other important greenhouse gases connected to human
activities include methane, nitrous oxide, and hydroflourocarbons.
These gases act as insulators, trapping the sun’s heat
within the atmosphere and causing the earth’s temperature
to slowly rise.
Fossil fuels provide about 90 percent of the world’s
commercial energy, and energy-related emissions of carbon
dioxide represent approximately 80 percent of the total carbon
dioxide emissions each year.
As world population grows and world energy use and industrialization
rise, the burning of fossil fuels continues to increase, as
does the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.
If the world maintains emissions at present levels, the concentration
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would still double by
the year 2100 and would continue to rise for another century
before stabilizing.
But carbon dioxide concentrations are, in fact, increasing.
Over the next 20 years, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates
that worldwide energy consumption will grow by 59 percent.
Carbon dioxide emissions are expected to nearly double in
the same period. Much of that increase will come from developing
countries, where energy use and use of fossil fuels is still
much lower than that of industrialized countries.
Although the developing countries hold 80 percent of the
world’s population, they currently use only about one
third of the world’s energy. As these developing countries
continue to industrialize, their levels of carbon dioxide
emissions will increase. Half of the projected growth in energy
demand is expected to parallel strong economic growth in the
developing nations of Asia, including China, India, and South
Korea, and in Central and South America. By 2010, their energy
use is expected to rise to 40 percent of the world total.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates
that by 2100 the current pattern of carbon dioxide emissions
will increase the Earth’s average temperature by 1 to
3.5 degrees Celsius.
These expected changes in the Earth’s temperature have
serious environmental consequences. Climate change may alter
habitats, causing plant and animal species to migrate. But
development may impede migration and many species may not
be able to adapt to new climates and new environments. Extreme
weather is likely to become more frequent. Some areas will
see more rainfall, while others will become more vulnerable
to drought. Warmer average temperatures will likely allow
tropical diseases such as malaria to drift into currently
unaffected regions. In addition, the melting of the glacial
ice covering may lead to rises in sea levels, threatening
coastal regions everywhere. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change predicts a sea level rise of between 15 to
95 centimeters by the year 2100.
Current analysis by the IPCC of recent global trends indicates
that the previous decade was the warmest on record and that
the average increase in temperature in the 20th century is
likely to be the largest of any century in the last 1,000
years. Effects connected with these trends include a 10 percent
decrease in the extent of snow cover since the late 1960s,
a widespread retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar regions,
and a decrease in the extent of sea-ice during spring and
summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
The Kyoto Protocol, drafted in 1997 and still undergoing
modifications in 2001, is the first international attempt
to create limits for greenhouse gas emissions for all countries.
But incomplete participation, difficulties of enforcement,
and national economic priorities may undermine the practical
effectiveness of the treaty.
Population and Deforestation
Since humans began to alter their environment 8,000 years
ago, approximately half of the original forest cover of the
Earth has been converted for agricultural, urban, and other
land uses. When forests are burned, or when vegetation is
cut and left to decompose, large amounts of greenhouse gases
are added to the atmosphere. Loss of trees also removes a
major source of oxygen production and speeds soil erosion.
Deforestation is currently occurring at the highest rates
in developing countries. Since 1980, forest area has increased
slightly in industrialized countries, but has decreased by
almost 10 percent in the developing world. World Resources
estimates that tropical deforestation probably exceeds 130,000
square kilometers per year.
The causes of deforestation are many and vary from region
to region. In Africa, Asia, and Latin America, growing populations
as well as widespread poverty and inequitable land distribution
have led to the expansion of subsistence farming. The poor
often lack the resources to find means other than clearing
additional farmland to fulfill their basic needs, making cutting
of trees for use as heating and cooking fuel a major source
of deforestation in developing countries. In addition, government-backed
projects such as large-scale ranching schemes that clear forests
to make way for cattle production are common in Latin America
as well as in Asia.
Other causes of deforestation include mining, commercial
logging, and infrastructure projects such as roads and railways.
All are fueled by increasing demands for products and the
drive for economic growth, both of which are, in part, a function
of growing populations.
Much of the forest cleared for agricultural use cannot sustain
agriculture for very long. In tropical areas, most of the
nutrients reside in the vegetation, not in the soil. And in
other regions, the loss of trees means that less water can
be stored in the ecosystem. This reduces the amount of water
recycled into the atmosphere and eventually affects the levels
of rainfall in the region. As rainfall decreases, the area
becomes dryer and less productive for agriculture, leading
to desertification.
In addition to affecting climate and soil quality, deforestation
is a major cause of species extinction. Although the world
is losing species everywhere, this loss is especially pronounced
in the tropical rain forest regions, which provide habitats
for over 50 percent of the world’s plant and animal
species.
Population and Biodiversity
All over the world, human settlements and economic activities
are crowding natural habitats, causing critical declines in
biodiversity. Species losses are occurring at a rate that
is 100 to 1,000 times the natural rate of extinction. According
to Harvard biologist Edward O. Wilson, a leading voice for
preserving biodiversity and natural habitats: “This
is the folly our descendants are least likely to forgive us.”
Habitat loss is the primary cause of species extinction.
A new approach to prioritizing conservation resources identifies
biodiversity “hotspots,” where the largest number
of species is confined to the most rapidly degrading habitats.
The total plant species identified around the world numbers
300,000. Scientists have named 25 hotspots, defined as an
area that contains 1,500 endemic plant species, or at least
0.5 percent of the total. The hotspots approach also counts
the number of vertebrates threatened by habitat losses in
each area.
Between one-third and one-half of the Earth’s land
area has been converted from its original habitat by urbanization,
agriculture, industry, and various other human activities.
Threats to biodiversity are approaching critical levels that
could precipitate widespread changes in the number and distribution
of species and the functioning of ecosystems.
The Convention on Biological Diversity created at the 1992
Earth Summit — the United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development in Rio de Janeiro — outlined particular
threats to biological diversity. One such threat warned against
in the Convention is the introduction of foreign species to
ecosystems. When foreign species enter new ecosystems, they
may alter them so significantly as to cause native species
to become endangered. Invasion of exotic species is the second
leading cause of extinction after habitat loss.
Examples of the loss of biodiversity are everywhere. Destructive
fishing practices and careless tourism threaten coral reefs
throughout the world that house an estimated one million species
of aquatic plants and animals. Worldwide, one quarter of all
mammal and amphibian species are threatened with extinction,
while 34 percent of fish species and 12 percent of bird species
are also classified as threatened. Habitat loss and degradation
affect 89 percent of all threatened birds, 83 percent of mammals,
and 91 percent of threatened plants.
Population and HIV/AIDS
The rise of the HIV/AIDS pandemic has been devastating to
families, communities, and nations around the world. Forty-five
countries now show HIV prevalence rates of 2 percent or more
among the general population. Thirty-five of these countries
are in sub-Saharan Africa, with nine measuring HIV prevalence
at or above 14 percent. The social dynamics that promote high-risk
sexual behaviors drive the international AIDS pandemic, with
poverty key among the conditions influencing individual attitudes
and practices among adults and young people.
In Botswana, the country with the highest rate of infections,
one in every three adults is HIV positive. Life expectancy
has dropped from just over 60 years to 44 years, and by 2005
is expected to fall to just 36 years. Other highly affected
countries are experiencing similar declines in life expectancy,
a key development indicator.
By 2015, the total populations of the 35 highly affected
African countries are projected to be 10 percent lower than
they would have been in the absence of HIV/AIDS. By 2050,
population projections recently revised to reflect the scope
of the pandemic indicate that these countries will have 15
percent fewer citizens than they would have had without the
devastation of HIV/AIDS-related mortality. Yet continuing
high fertility rates will keep overall population numbers
on the rise.
Four countries in Asia are also severely affected by the
HIV/AIDS pandemic. Cambodia, India, Myanmar, and Thailand
all estimate that 2 percent or more of their populations are
carrying the virus. In Latin America and the Caribbean region,
six countries fall into this category: Bahamas, Brazil, Dominican
Republic, Guyana, Haiti, and Honduras.
More than 13 million children, most of them in Africa, have
already lost one or both parents to AIDS. For children orphaned
by AIDS, the wake of loss trailing the HIV/AIDS pandemic is
a complex burden. As UNAIDS says, “Neither words nor
statistics can adequately capture the human tragedy of children
grieving for dying or dead parents, stigmatized by society
through association with HIV/AIDS, plunged into economic crisis
and insecurity by their parents’ death, and struggling
without services or support systems in impoverished communities.”
AIDS orphans in Africa already comprise a group nearly three
times as large as the number of political refugees and displaced
persons there. In coming years, millions more are expected
to join the ranks of children without parents, as HIV prevalence
continues to soar.
At a June 2001 Special Session of the U.N. General Assembly
on HIV/AIDS, 179 countries set a goal of reducing HIV prevalence
in the most affected countries by 25 percent among 15- to
24-year-olds. The agreement calls for that same goal applied
globally by 2010.
In monetary terms, US$7 to 10 billion annually is needed
for prevention, care, support, and treatment programs in highly
affected countries, including those experiencing or at risk
of a rapid expansion of the epidemic. A Global HIV/AIDS and
Health Fund will aim to finance the expanded response, seeking
support from public and private sources, with a special appeal
to donor countries, foundations, and the business community.
Population and Women
Promoting the status, education, and health of women is an
essential human rights goal, and also holds the key to social
development in all societies, improving lives and strengthening
families and communities. Women’s empowerment is also
central to efforts to slow population growth rates. In 1994
and again in 1999, 179 countries attending United Nations
sessions on Population and Development agreed to encourage
women’s equality and full participation in society by
improving access to health and education, adopting appropriate
policy measures, and facilitating economic opportunities.
Education is a key issue for promoting women’s health
and empowerment around the world. More educated women tend
to delay marriage as well as pregnancy, thus reducing the
number of children they bear. In addition, educated women
tend to have better access to information and resources for
family planning, and for ensuring their children’s health.
Girls with at least seven years of schooling become women
who bear two to three fewer children on average than girls
with no schooling at all.
In developing nations, more than 100 million children are
not enrolled in primary school, and two-thirds of those children
are girls. At the secondary level, 59 percent of girls in
developing countries are not enrolled, while 48 percent of
boys are not enrolled. Literacy statistics for men and women
in developing countries paint a similar picture of inequity.
Seventy-eight percent of men in developing countries are literate,
compared to sixty-one percent of women.
Beyond promoting health and helping to reduce population
growth rates, family planning is critical to reducing maternal
mortality rates. Promoting access to information and services
that can help women avoid unwanted pregnancies and abortion
as well as improving access to medical care during and after
pregnancy can significantly reduce maternal deaths. About
600,000 women die each year from difficulties related to childbirth,
pregnancy, and unsafe abortion.
Family planning is also typically a woman’s responsibility.
Almost 70 percent of the couples using some form of contraception
choose a female method, such as female sterilization, the
intrauterine device (IUD), or the pill. Female sterilization
is the most commonly used contraceptive throughout the world,
followed by the IUD, the pill, the condom, and vasectomy,
respectively.
The total number of married women worldwide using some form
of family planning is about 60 percent. Of the women who do
not currently use any family planning methods the most common
reasons cited are a lack of knowledge and/or fear of contraception
and a lack of access to appropriate family planning services.
Population and Child Welfare
Worldwide, there are almost 2 billion children under the age
of 15 and another 1 billion between the ages of 15 and 24.
These large numbers of young people reflect recent surges
in population growth and point to the gradual demographic
shift that will occur over the next century as this young
population ages.
Recent decades have seen real progress for children. National
immunization campaigns are now widespread in developing countries
as well as in the industrialized world. The goal of eradicating
polio is much closer thanks to a global partnership involving
governments, U.N. agencies, and non-governmental groups. Oral
rehydration therapy has helped cut deaths from diarrhea in
half. And the life-saving practice of breastfeeding rose by
a third during the 1990s.
Some progress has been made toward the goal of providing
universal education. More children are in school than ever
before. And the Convention on the Rights of the Child, now
in force for more than a decade, has helped place issues relevant
to children high on national and global political agendas.
Child protection issues are increasingly under systematic
scrutiny, accompanied by actions to decrease children’s
vulnerability to hazardous situations from exploitative child
labor, to trafficking and abuse, to armed conflict and other
forms of violence, much of it gender-based.
But according to Carol Bellamy, Executive Director of UNICEF,
“we are still far from making good on the commitments
to children that world leaders made at the 1990 Children’s
Summit a decade ago, especially in health, nutrition, and
education.”
Over 100 million of the world’s children, 60 percent
of them girls, are not in school. By 2010, half of the world’s
out-of-school children will be in Africa. Rooted in both cultural
traditions and financial stress in Africa, these educational
struggles are now heightened by HIV/AIDS, which, as UNICEF
says, “is killing teachers and school administrators
as relentlessly as it is killing children.”
Profound negative effects on children’s well being
continue to stem from structural social and political realities
including under-investment in basic health and social services,
gender discrimination, the effects of armed conflict, and
the crushing burden of external debt.
Bellamy says that “Increased resource provision for
children is not only a moral and ethical imperative, but also
highly cost-effective.” At the September 2001 United
Nations Special Session on Children, world leaders reaffirmed
their commitment to improving children’s chances of
survival. Goals include increasing access to health services
for women and children, reducing the incidence of preventable
diseases, creating more opportunities for education, providing
better sanitation and food supply, and protecting children
in danger.
Population and Economic Growth
Although economic growth is correlated to improvements in
many development indicators such as increases in life expectancy,
advances in education, and rises in per capita income, it
does not ensure advances in human development.
Widespread poverty is still pervasive in the developing world.
About one-quarter of the population in developing countries
lives on less than US$1.00 a day, the World Bank’s index
for measuring poverty. Globally, the percentage of people
in this category dropped between 1990 and 1998, from 29 percent
to 23 percent.
Absolute numbers of people in such extreme poverty fell by
about 100 million over the same period. But the World Bank
notes that almost all of this statistical progress is attributable
to a sharp decline in the number of very poor people in East
Asia. When figures from China are excluded, the number of
people living on $1 per day rose from 880 million in 1987
to 961 million in 1998.
Many countries have thrived in recent years as globalization
has improved communications, quickened technology transfers,
and expanded financial markets. In general, poverty is declining
in countries achieving rapid economic growth. The World Bank
points out that the overall decline in extreme poverty over
the last decade was driven by rapid growth in countries with
large numbers of poor people, like China, for example. But
these countries also experienced large increases in inequality
between rich and poor citizens. And many developing countries
have not benefited from this economic prosperity.
In the least developed countries, national exports inched
up by 0.3 percent, but per capita incomes actually fell in
the 1990s. Problems include unreliable transport services,
inefficient banking systems, power interruptions, and burdensome
red tape. Even under the World Bank’s most optimistic
assumptions, in 2015 there are likely to be 2.3 billion people
living on $2 a day or less.
Among and within countries, the disparity between rich and
poor has increased significantly in recent years. Over the
last 20 years, the difference in average per capita income
of industrialized countries as compared to developing countries
tripled. At present, the richest 20 percent of the world’s
population earns 86 percent of the world’s income, while
the poorest 20 percent earns only 1.1 percent.
Population Projections
It wasn’t until about 1800 A.D. that the world population
reached the one billion mark. Almost 130 years elapsed before
the second billion could be measured. The third billion took
just 30 years, even with all the loss of life related to World
War II. Just 14 years after hitting the 3 billion mark in
1960, world population reached 4 billion in 1974. Arriving
at five billion then took only 13 years. And the twelve years
between five and six billion, from 1987 to 1999, hold the
world record for population growth.
World population is projected to reach more than nine billion
by 2050. This represents an upward revision from a forecast
of 8.9 billion made several years ago. The reason is that
fertility rates, or average family sizes, are not declining
as quickly as expected. In one example of the impact of these
changes, the total population of Bangladesh, India, and Nigeria
combined is now expected to reach 2.1 billion in 2050, about
131 million higher than projected in forecasts dating from
1998.
The populations of many countries continue to grow at alarming
rates. In the United States, rapid population growth intensifies
already high demands on the Earth’s resources. In developing
countries, large segments of populations are already lacking
basic services including housing, sanitation, health care,
and education.
By 2025, the population of the United States is expected
to increase from today’s 285 million to 346 million.
Pakistan is projected to almost double from 145 million to
252 million. And Nigeria’s current 127 million population
should reach 204 million by 2025. Other large developing countries
experiencing significant growth are Bangladesh, Brazil, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Mexico, and the Philippines.
In another dramatic example, India will continue on its way
toward supplanting China as the world’s most populous
country by 2050.
Demographer Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau
highlights the potential variation in future population numbers
based on actual fertility rates, noting that small increases
in average family size can result in large population gains.
“Average fertility is a very sensitive indicator,”
he says, posing the hypothetical question of what would happen
if family planning were completely rejected in Africa or India,
for example: “Population growth rates would skyrocket
again.” But the traditional reasons for larger families,
such as agriculture, the role of women, and cultural expectations,
can change in our modern world, he says. Regarding population
priorities, Haub says that South Asia and most of Africa today
face the biggest challenges.
Another important aspect of current world population trends
is known as “age structure.” According to the
United Nations, “the growth in size of the world population
is matched by the unparalleled shift in the age structure.”
Currently, there are approximately 3 billion people under
age 24. It is because of this youthful age structure that
even small changes in average fertility rates can have profound
implications for absolute population numbers. If couples uniformly
delay marriage and the birth of the first child by five years,
demographers say, the population in 2050 would be two billion
less than if they had not waited.
Besides this large youthful component of today’s global
population, the number of elderly around the world is also
beginning to rise significantly. By 2050, world population
over the age of 60 is expected to rise from 606 million in
2000 to almost 2 billion. This changing age structure of the
population will present many challenges to health and other
services, particularly for women, who make up the majority
of the elderly population in most countries.
Conclusion
Throughout the 1990s, the United Nations organized a series
of global conferences for governments around the world to
formulate a set of comprehensive development plans to guide
societies into the 21st century. Beginning in 1990 with the
World Summit for Children, the series went on to include the
1992 Earth Summit, the 1993 Vienna Conference on Human Rights,
the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development,
the Fourth World Conference on Women in 1995, and the June
1996 Habitat II Conference on Human Settlements.
At each of these massive conferences, more than 175 delegations
from governments around the world went through the painstaking
process of reaching consensus on plans for local, national,
and international action related to each development agenda.
Many of these landmark events have marked their five-year
anniversaries and are reaching the ten-year vantage point
for assessing progress. Each international gathering promotes
political will, resources, and programs addressing today’s
most critical health, social, and environmental issues.
At the International Conference on Population and Development
(ICPD) in 1994, 179 countries reached a consensus on how population
is tied to development issues, creating a 20-year Programme
of Action that addresses the challenges of a growing world
population. Five years later in 1999, a Special Session of
the United Nations reviewed the progress to date.
Countries attending these ICPD+5 meetings agreed that while
much progress has occurred, enormous challenges remain. Women
and girl children continue to face discrimination. The rise
of the HIV/AIDS pandemic has caused rising mortality in many
countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Illness and
death from infectious, parasitic, and water-borne diseases,
including tuberculosis and malaria, continue to take their
toll. Maternal mortality remains alarmingly high. And millions
of couples and individuals, including adolescents, lack access
to reproductive health information and services.
About half of all countries have reviewed their population
and development policies as a result of ICPD, according to
the United Nations. More than one-third of all countries made
changes in their population policies, while two-thirds proposed
legislative and policy changes that support gender equity.
The ICPD estimated that in order to reach its goals, the world
would need to spend approximately $17 billion on population
and reproductive health activities annually. Recognizing that
developing nations do not have the resources to bear such
a burden alone, these costs were divided, with donor assistance
commitments from industrialized nations accounting for $5.7
billion, or about one third of the total, and developing nations
responsible for $11.3 billion, or two-thirds.
Recent spending, however, falls far short of these targets,
with international aid for population and reproductive health
programs hovering around US$2.1 billion per year. Estimates
indicate that government spending in developing countries
is closer to the targets set at the ICPD. The ICPD+5 review
emphasized that “there is an urgent need for donor countries
to renew and intensify efforts to mobilize development assistance.”
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Women of Our World,
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W.W. Norton;
How Many People Can the Earth
Support, 1995, Joel E.
Cohen, W.W. Norton;
Tapped Out, 1999, Paul
Simon, Welcome Rain Publishers; The State of World Population
2000, UNFPA;
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People and Ecosystems, U.N. Development Programme,
U.N. Environment Programme, World Bank, Tapped Out Institute;
UNICEF
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and Natural Resources at the Turn of the Millennium,
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Atlas of Population and the
Environment, American Association for the Advancement of Science
(AAAS)
Vital Signs 2001, The Worldwatch
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2001, Population Reference Bureau
2000 IUCN Red List of Threatened
Species, International Conservation Union.
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